How to bet Commanders-49ers: Analysis, tips and top prop plays

 

The vibes of the San Francisco 49ers and the Washington Commanders are very different entering their "Monday Night Football" matchup. The 49ers are 5-0, a record that includes wins over the rival superteam Los Angeles Rams and the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Commanders have spent eight days reliving the final minute of their overtime nightmare against the New York Giants, in which Jayden Daniels -- seemingly unaware of the situation -- let the clock run out with the team in field goal range. The result? A terrible-feeling tie.

On paper, the numbers match those feelings. The 49ers ranked third in both offensive EPA per play and defensive EPA per play entering Sunday's action, with the former fueled by MVP candidate Brock Purdy's stellar play. Washington, meanwhile, ranked 20th and 22nd on offensive and defensive EPA per play, respectively. So it should be a lopsided game, except ...

Betting outlook 

Lost in the mayhem of that Commanders loss was a key factor that is critical to how we view this team moving forward: Daniels played great in his return from injury. His 80.7 QBR was the fifth best in Week 5, and the fact that he was uninhibited in running the football -- he ran nine times for 103 yards -- makes me even more bullish on Daniels going forward

That's why if I've got to pick a side or team prop in this game, I would lean toward Commanders +7.5 and Commanders over 21.5 points.

Notable player props, bets

Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey have plenty to smile about with the 49ers off to a 5-0 start. Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire

Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

Brock Purdy pass attempts OVER 30.5 (-121)

Walder: Purdy has been incredibly efficient this season, with an 85.8 QBR that easily leads the league. He's near the top of the MVP race because he has been so efficient, particularly with the Niners relying heavily on the passing game. San Francisco ranks sixth in pass rate over expected this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and that is a reason why my pass attempts model thinks there is value on Purdy's prop here.

Purdy 26+ completions (+418)

Walder: If you're feeling spicier, consider this alternate line on Purdy's completions, which my completions model also thinks is a good bet. The aforementioned pass rate over expected is a factor again here. But so, too, is Purdy's accuracy. Purdy ranks second in off-target rate and fifth in completion rate over expected. He basically doesn't take sacks, which could result in another attempt or two -- and therefore possibly a completion or two -- compared to an average quarterback.

Jayden Daniels rushing yards OVER 36.5 (-114)

Pamela Maldonado: This starts with how often he takes off. Daniels averages seven carries and a league-high 5.33 scrambles per game, giving him chances to cash this without Washington calling designed runs. Last week's nine carries for 103 yards also showed he's willing to run following his elbow injury. San Francisco limits downfield throws, which could send Daniels looking for yards with his legs when receivers aren't open. With Dre Greenlaw suspended, the 49ers are missing a linebacker who could help chase him down. Daniels needs 37 yards, and his recent usage gives him opportunities to deliver.